EU Natural Gas Futures Lower After The Two-Week High
London, 2 September 2024
The two-week high of €39.4 on August 31st was surpassed by European natural gas futures. They now trade around €39 per megawatt-hour as markets evaluate potential supply threats ahead of the start of the winter season, which typically sees increased demand.
With the option to reroute shipments to Europe, the Turkish government inked a 10-year LNG deal with Shell. This move bolsters Ankara's ambition to increase its influence in the EU and Asian gas markets and advances Europe's efforts to reconstruct its supply chains following the shocks brought on by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Even with efforts to expand supply, prices have remained steadily higher since the end of the second quarter due to major producers' unpredictable output.
This increased security to some extent because Europe's gas storage is currently operating at almost 92% capacity, more than two months' supply over the EU's target for November.
A recent maintenance project that affected significant pipelines like Franpipe, Emden, and Dornum decreased Norwegian gas nominations by 10 million cubic meters per day.
Stats
Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity indicates that TTF Gas has gained 6.34 EUR/MWh, or 19.61%, since the beginning of 2024. In March 2022, the EU Natural Gas TTF hit an all-time high of 345. The most recent update to the EU Natural Gas TTF (statistics, projections, historical chart) was made on September 2, 2024.
Forecast
Trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity indicates that TTF Gas has gained 6.34 EUR/MWh, or 19.61%, since the beginning of 2024. By the conclusion of this quarter, Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expect the EU Natural Gas TTF to trade at 40.03 EUR/MWh. In the future, Trading Economics predict that it will trade at 42.00 in a year. (Source: Trading Economics)
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